Daily archives: 26th July 2019

6 posts

The ideal Brexit Britishers want

The UK’s political situation has altered significantly in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. Even after two years of this referendum, Britain is still in a complex and unpredictable situation. Experts are having difficulties to know about the ideal Brexit the Britishers want. A number of discrete-choice trials or experiments were carried out. These experiments were conducted on the very same group of the people who were surveyed a year ago. The British people in the survey firmly rejected the no-deal Brexit. They now want to have a softer or less harmful Brexit. However, in 2017, more people were supporting a no-deal Brexit. This shows a shift in their ideology.

A brief of what happened till date

In the referendum of 2016, the citizens of the UK were asked to vote whether they intended to stay with the EU or not. Out of the people who voted, 51.9 percent voted in favor of leaving the EU. However, from such type of referendum, we can’t come to a conclusion as to what actually the British people want. We cannot get a clear idea of what they were expecting and what they would want now from the Brexit. But a study done by the University of Cambridge made it somewhat clear as to what the British people anticipate with Brexit. Also, the study made it clear that what the people of Britain are willing to negotiate for the deal with the European Union.

It’s been more than a year and still, the negotiations are going on between the UK and the European Union. This article will tell you how the ideologies of people have changed with time. There is a shift in their mindset as to what is beneficial for Britain and what is not. They want a better relationship with the EU in the future, especially after last year’s political debate and incidents.

The methodology of knowing about ideal Brexit

The objective of the study was to attempt and determine what kind of association British people are hoping for with the EU. We wanted to evaluate what elements of this association Britons believe are most crucial and what trade-offs the citizens would be prepared to engage in Brexit agreements.

In the study, people were asked to choose between a number of hypothetical situations. The situations were describing the different scenarios of the possible UK’s relationship with the EU. The British people were concerned with the following aspects-

  • Freedom of movement across countries for recreational activities or holidays
  • Freedom of movement for employment
  • Liberty to have trade deals with non-member countries of EU
  • Freedom to access the single market for the services sector
  • Freedom to have access to the European market for the goods sector

The Findings

  1. The British people still want an agreement centered on a strong relationship with the European Union with the most favored choice representing EEA’s membership. People’s views in terms of the comparative significance of distinct elements of the UK’s partnership with the EU have not significantly altered in the past year.
  2. Over the previous year, people have observed a ‘ softening ‘ of the kind of connection Britons want from the EU. Also, there was a boost in the number of individuals who want to stay in the EU.
  3. Those with higher educational qualifications tend to put greater importance on the liberty of movement for job and work. They particularly do not like the need for having work visas. They want an uninterrupted movement for jobs across European countries.
  4. The importance British people position on the suggestions laid out in the Chequers scheme is hard to quantify. This is due to its lack of transparency on important problems of interest. The Agreements were favored by people, especially which offered the following:
  • A bilateral visa-free transport agreement between the EU and the UK
  • Enables the United Kingdom to conclude trade agreements with nations outside the EU on its own terms
  • Helps the UK to continue trading products with EU members at no extra cost at all.

Summary

UK’s political situation has altered significantly in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. Britain proceeds to discover itself in a turbulent and unstable scenario for two years. The British people oppose this no-deal situation much more strongly than they did in 2017. The public opinion, even among the people who voted for Leaving the European Union, is moving to a softer Brexit.

Of important concern is that presently, none of the mainstream political parties advocate what is the most common decision. The rest of the 42 percent of people chose the decision of joining the EEA.

In the time period left for negotiation, it is of utmost significance that political leaders consider British people’s priorities for the future partnership with the EU. Also, they can also have the ideal Brexit.

Record 4 million signatures for petition: Protest against Brexit, tens of thousands of people on London streets

Hundreds of thousands of people from all over the UK are expected on the streets of London on Saturday to seek a new referendum on Brexit. More than a million people are expected to seek a second referendum on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, after a similar gathering attracted to estimates of 700,000 people.

A protest march in London began with which citizens of the city want to announce that Brexit should give up or at least allow another referendum.

The greatest danger to the UK if it does not come to an agreement is that the European Union will have to leave without any agreement that could have a devastating effect on the country’s economy and political stability.

Layla Moran, a spokeswoman, said the petition that has gathered more than 4.18 million signatures to “give the wind to the cradle” requests for yet another Brexith referendum.

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan from the Opposition Labor Party and the head of the Scottish National Party, Nicola Sturgeon, are also in the process.

“I will go tomorrow with people from all corners of our country, to urge the British people to decide on Brexit,” Khan said. Sturgeon said she was proud of what to speak in the procession.

Prime Minister Theresa May has repeatedly rejected calls for a second referendum despite parliament’s agreement on leaving the European Union so far.

EU leaders and May agreed on Brexit’s postponement this week and removed the possibility of Britain leaving the block on March 29.

On Saturday morning, the number of petitioners calling for the British government to withdraw Article 50 on the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union has risen to more than four million.

Since the opening of the site on which the incentive can be signed, the server has been demolished several times due to overload. Namely, too many people at the same time wanted to sign an incentive.

The British Parliament’s Petitions Committee said 96 percent of the signatures came from the United Kingdom, but also those overseas because anyone who is a British citizen has the right to sign a petition, regardless of where he lives.

This petition has currently collected three times more signatures, but all pro-Brexit petitions together.

Margaret Anne Georgiadou, organizer of the petition, wrote that “the government claims that leaving the EU is the will of the people. We need to put an end to this false claim by showing support for staying in the EU!”

Trump has an interesting message for Brits: “They have to do it”

US President Donald Trump said the UK should refuse to pay Brexit’s 39 billion pounds and “quit” negotiations on Brexit if Bruxelles does not give London what it wants.

Trump, in an interview for Sunday Times, said ahead of a state visit to Britain on Monday that the next British prime minister should send Nigel Farage, a fierce advocate of Britain’s EU entry, to negotiate with the EU.

Trump said Britain must leave the EU this year. “They have to do it,” he said. “They have to complete the negotiations,” added Trump.

“If they do not get what they want, I would go to their place. If you do not get a fair deal, you go,” the US president said.

Trump reiterated his support for those candidates for the British prime minister who said Britain should leave the EU by October 31, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations.

Candidates for this are former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, whom Trump boasted in a Sun newspaper interview on Friday, former Minister for Brexit Dominic Raab and Interior Minister Sayyid Javid.

Trump also said that the conservative mistake had not included Farage, party leader Brexit, in negotiations with Brussels after the party’s success in European elections.

“I like Nigel very much. He has a lot to offer, he is a very smart person,” Trump said. “They will not engage him, but consider how good they can do it, they have not yet understood,” he added.

The US president said he needed to “meet” the leader of opposition laborers Jeremy Corby before sharing the most sensitive US intelligence data with the radical left-wing government.

The United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, New Zealand and Australia have concluded an agreement for sharing intelligence, five-eye agreement.

Is Brexit really a big deal?

PUBLIC LOANS in the UK could double in case of exiting from the EU without agreement, claims the UK Bureau of Budgetary Accountability (OBR).

In the case of Brexit reached without an agreement, the public debt could rise to 60 billion pounds, while in the case of Brexit, the deal would amount to 29.3 billion pounds, the BBC reported.

Possible recession

The above scenario is based on the assumption that going without a deal would lead the UK to a recession.

Britain officially leaves the EU on October 31 this year.

The chances of going out without an agreement have recently increased after both candidates for the post of Conservative Party have supported such an option.

OBR prognosis

OBR, which was set up with the goal of independent analysis of British public finances, used the IMF’s analysis of the first scenario of exit without agreement, according to which the British economy will be weakened by 2% in 2020, in order to recover in 2021.

This will follow the introduction of tariffs of 4% on products from the EU.

“Increased insecurity and a decline in self-confidence” will damage investment, while “trade barriers will make it more difficult for exports”, the OBR report says.

“These two factors together lead Great Britain into a recession, with substantially falling property prices and the value of a pound,” it added.

There is also a risk of inflation and an increase in the indebtedness of the public sector by 12% by 2024.

OBR added that this is not the most likely scenario, as is the worst possible case, and that both conservative candidates offer suggestions that “in the case of implementation, increase the government’s indebtedness by tens of billions of pounds.”

Opinions of politicians

The OBR forecasts proved to be milder than those of Bank of England and Britain’s treasuries, according to which Britain is threatened by a 8% fall in GDP and a recession from 2008 as well as a blow to the economy of £ 90 billion by 2035.

Eurosceptic politicians, such as Jacoba Rees-Mogg, call these forecasts “fools” and even predict the growth of the British economy after leaving the EU.

The head of the British treasury, Philip Hammond, argued, “that even the smallest form of going out without a deal would be a big blow to the British economy,” criticizing the leading Brexit people who “want to make it even harder.”

Fierce criticism at the expense of the conservative government was made by people from the two leading opposition parties, with Labusist John McDonnell saying “Brexit will, without agreement, leave an indelible mark on the British economy and public finances, and that it comes as a result of a failed approach to the economy in the last 9 years “.

Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson, candidates for successor Therese May at the post of Prime Minister, have tightened their stance on Brexit over the border, arguing that the only solution is the “hard border” between the UK and the EU on the island of Ireland.

The EU’s leading negotiator on Brexit’s issue, Michel Barnier, said that “the proposal of the agreement offered by Theresa May and how it was rejected three times was the only way for Britain to leave the EU properly.”

Irish Prime Minister: Johnson’s new Brexit agreement is not possible at all

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s proposal for new negotiations on Britain’s EU withdrawal agreement in the coming months “is not possible in real life,” said Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar.

“By listening to his speech, I got the impression that he was not just talking about erasing the backstop, but also talking about a completely new agreement – an agreement better for Britain,” commented Varadkar as Johnson’s first speech as the British prime minister.

“Any suggestion that a completely new agreement can be negotiated in weeks or months is absolutely not possible in reality,” Varadkar said in an interview with RTE television.

“It will not happen,” Varadkar said.

Red line of the European Union

The red line of the European Union will not change and its negotiating position will not change in the face of the planned British exit from the EU on October 31, the Irish prime minister added, referring to the announcement from Johnson’s inaugural speech in which he said he would take Britain out of the European Union 31 October “without but without”, but with “a new, better agreement”.

Varadkar congratulated Johnson on taking over as prime minister, saying he was looking forward to working with Johnson’s cabinet, especially when it comes to the border issue with Ireland, the main issue of brexit.

The Irish prime minister said his British counterpart would have to “add a bit of detail about the slogans and statements” about the brex.

“Confidence and enthusiasm are not substitutes for European politics,” the Irish prime minister said.

An unstable political situation in the United Kingdom

While Johnson said in his speech that he wants to leave the EU and if it does not need it, Varadkar said that it is clear to him that Johnson has no support in the parliament for such a step.

He also suggested that the political situation in the United Kingdom was very unstable, unlike Ireland. “It’s stable in our country,” Varadkar said.

European Union Anti Tax Avoidance Directive

Johnson gave an ultimatum to the EU: Start negotiations or go out without an agreement

New British Prime Minister Boris Johnson sent in his first address to the British Parliament ultimatum to Brussels to re-enter into negotiations on Brexit, or otherwise the UK would come out of the European Union without an agreement.

“We are ready to negotiate, in good faith, an alternative (a Brexite agreement),” Johnson said in addressing parliament members. “We will engage in these negotiations with the greatest possible energy and determination,” added Johnson.

“UK must leave the EU by October 31st”

The new British prime minister said he hoped that European leaders would “think about their current refusal” to renegotiate an agreement regulating British exit from the European Union.

“If that does not work, we will have to get out without an agreement,” Johnson said, adding that he asked his new ministers in the government to make preparations so that their “top priority” would become a departure without an agreement.

The new British prime minister insists Britain leave the EU by October 31, whether or not it will have an agreement with the EU at that time.

Boris Johnson also said that the so-called ” A “backstop”, a borderline solution with Ireland that sought to disable the return of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in order to achieve a breakthrough with Brexit.

“It must be made clear that the path to the Brexit agreement is going beyond abandonment,” Johnson told the parliament.

It will not be nominated by the EU commissioner

Johnson also said in his inaugural speech that the United Kingdom would not nominate candidates for the new European Commission despite the fact that it was requested from her as a member state of the European Union.

“We will not nominate EU commissioners under any circumstances,” Johnson told the MPs, adding that the purpose of his decision was not to “stop the European Union in appointing a new Commission.”

Johnson said many British officials were stuck in numerous meetings in Brussels and Luxembourg, and it would be better to deal with the provision of new free trade agreements.

The UK was asked to announce the name of the commission’s candidate despite the fact that it was scheduled to leave the block on October 31, the day before the body began to work.

“Today is the first day of applying a new approach that will end with our departure from the EU on October 31,” the new prime minister pointed out, which insists that the UK must leave the EU by that date, with or without an agreement.